***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 29.2 29.8 3.6 97.3 93.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 27.5 30.0 30.0 3.8 97.9 93.8 25.1 25.9 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 27.5 30.0 30.2 3.9 98.4 94.8 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 20.6 22.7 28.2 3.4 96.5 92.7 18.4 19.2 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 28.2 30.6 28.5 3.7 97.9 94.5 25.8 26.7 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 27.1 29.7 26.5 3.9 98.1 95.8 24.6 25.5 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 27.1 29.3 29.7 3.5 97.4 92.8 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 16.3 19.1 27.1 4.2 99.0 96.7 14.2 14.9 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 27.6 30.3 29.0 3.9 98.6 95.5 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 27.4 30.4 27.8 4.2 99.1 96.6 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 27.9 30.8 28.4 4.1 98.8 96.1 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 27.2 30.2 28.2 4.2 98.8 96.5 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 28.2 31.0 27.9 4.1 98.6 96.4 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 27.4 30.9 28.9 4.4 99.5 97.0 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 28.1 30.1 29.0 3.3 96.2 92.7 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 28.8 31.7 28.2 4.0 98.5 95.9 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 26.7 29.4 29.5 3.7 98.3 94.2 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 26.3 29.3 27.1 4.4 99.4 97.2 24.3 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 27.2 30.1 30.3 4.1 98.5 95.0 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 22.7 25.9 24.9 4.1 99.2 96.7 20.3 21.2 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 27.6 30.0 29.5 3.6 97.5 93.5 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 27.2 30.1 29.7 3.9 98.7 95.0 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 27.3 30.4 30.4 4.4 99.2 96.6 24.9 25.8 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 27.0 30.3 28.8 4.4 99.4 97.0 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 27.7 29.9 28.4 3.4 97.0 92.7 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 27.9 30.1 27.6 3.8 97.7 95.0 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 27.3 29.5 29.0 3.4 97.1 92.8 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 28.2 30.0 28.6 3.4 96.2 92.7 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 21.9 25.2 26.2 4.4 99.5 97.3 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 27.3 29.7 30.1 3.7 97.7 93.5 24.9 25.8 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------