***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 24.1 18.9 57.4 31.6 28.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 21.4 21.4 19.9 56.5 25.9 27.4 26.4 38.9 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 20.7 21.1 18.9 53.4 26.1 25.5 26.4 41.4 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 26.5 28.6 18.6 53.5 28.6 25.2 32.3 47.6 66.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 19.5 22.1 19.9 54.5 29.4 25.5 24.6 38.1 54.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 17.7 14.4 21.1 48.7 20.3 22.2 22.8 35.6 51.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 23.3 23.3 20.7 59.1 27.5 28.8 27.3 40.7 57.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 36.4 29.9 21.2 47.1 16.5 19.8 49.2 70.3 95.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 25.3 26.3 20.7 53.1 24.1 23.1 32.8 45.6 60.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 24.4 20.9 22.1 47.9 17.0 19.9 33.0 47.0 63.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 20.4 21.1 18.2 51.4 24.5 22.8 26.5 38.6 52.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 19.6 19.5 17.0 48.5 22.3 21.9 26.5 38.8 53.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 18.3 17.3 18.2 48.3 21.6 22.0 24.7 37.2 51.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 33.6 29.2 24.5 50.7 19.1 22.5 42.6 59.8 79.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 9.7 11.5 14.2 48.3 28.8 25.4 13.4 23.4 36.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 18.1 18.0 17.8 50.7 24.2 23.0 24.0 36.9 52.6 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 27.4 28.5 21.3 60.1 29.0 29.6 31.3 44.1 59.1 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 25.4 18.3 25.1 46.1 13.1 18.3 35.2 50.5 69.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 25.9 25.3 19.3 53.8 24.4 25.9 31.6 44.5 59.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 30.8 20.0 29.3 47.7 12.3 18.4 40.3 58.1 79.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 18.9 22.4 19.4 56.5 28.7 25.4 25.6 39.9 57.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 30.3 30.7 20.7 55.2 26.4 27.6 36.0 50.2 66.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 23.9 22.0 19.6 51.7 22.9 24.4 29.2 42.4 58.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 28.9 24.4 22.4 48.1 16.7 20.3 38.3 53.5 70.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 19.9 22.2 21.5 57.4 29.0 26.6 25.2 40.5 59.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 15.7 12.4 15.1 44.1 19.4 21.2 20.4 31.8 45.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 21.1 23.3 21.6 57.7 29.2 27.6 26.3 41.8 61.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 16.8 18.9 16.9 52.4 29.8 26.0 20.7 30.8 42.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 41.2 29.5 27.2 46.9 12.0 18.3 54.1 74.6 97.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 21.9 22.6 19.4 55.8 27.1 27.5 26.3 37.9 51.6 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------