***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 10.5 6.0 75.2 57.3 39.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.4 12.1 7.0 78.0 57.7 43.6 5.0 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.0 11.4 5.6 68.3 53.2 38.0 4.6 10.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 4.0 11.3 5.2 63.0 53.6 32.8 4.7 9.8 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 4.2 11.4 5.1 61.5 52.6 32.2 5.0 10.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.6 7.9 6.3 59.2 50.6 31.4 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.4 7.5 80.2 58.6 44.2 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 7.7 12.8 4.1 44.0 42.7 27.8 9.3 16.1 25.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 4.4 11.1 5.4 61.5 51.4 32.4 4.9 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 5.6 11.2 5.0 51.4 46.3 30.4 6.6 12.6 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.7 8.4 3.9 51.6 47.9 28.6 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.6 7.3 3.3 45.7 45.8 27.5 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 4.1 8.7 4.5 51.7 48.0 29.8 4.8 9.3 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.1 13.9 7.6 66.0 51.1 38.3 7.0 13.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.5 4.7 4.1 60.2 52.0 31.0 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.6 8.2 4.2 54.1 48.9 29.4 4.1 8.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.8 11.3 8.4 87.0 60.1 45.1 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 4.6 8.2 5.9 49.2 43.3 31.2 5.5 10.1 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.5 6.5 75.9 56.4 42.1 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 5.5 8.6 5.7 40.1 38.3 28.3 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.6 10.0 5.4 68.4 54.3 34.8 3.8 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.6 13.1 8.1 84.6 59.1 44.1 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.0 6.3 72.7 54.5 39.9 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 6.6 12.7 6.2 58.7 47.9 34.7 7.0 13.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.1 10.9 6.8 69.2 55.0 38.1 3.9 9.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.7 6.1 3.5 48.6 46.4 27.2 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.8 10.7 7.2 74.5 56.8 40.4 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.6 7.5 4.7 64.6 54.0 31.4 3.4 6.4 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.1 9.8 6.1 46.6 40.3 29.9 7.0 14.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.9 10.0 6.4 74.1 56.2 42.0 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------