***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 13.0 8.1 101.0 66.6 42.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.4 8.5 8.1 93.0 64.4 42.7 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.7 10.3 8.6 96.8 65.4 42.7 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.3 17.6 8.7 102.8 67.1 39.2 4.9 9.9 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 3.0 12.4 9.8 110.1 68.9 40.0 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.8 12.9 10.4 88.0 61.8 39.3 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.9 11.9 8.1 100.3 66.4 43.6 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 6.8 24.0 10.8 94.9 63.6 40.6 7.3 14.9 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.8 12.1 10.2 105.8 67.8 40.3 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.6 11.9 11.0 93.8 63.6 40.9 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.5 13.0 9.5 107.9 68.0 39.4 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 4.0 16.2 9.0 105.4 67.1 39.2 4.5 9.2 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 3.6 14.0 9.6 100.0 65.9 39.5 4.3 8.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.0 11.0 87.0 61.9 43.4 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 1.7 7.6 6.6 83.6 61.9 36.4 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 3.1 13.9 9.4 106.0 67.6 39.3 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.8 7.6 90.1 63.7 43.5 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.0 12.1 84.5 59.8 41.9 4.5 8.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.4 12.1 8.0 87.7 62.8 41.7 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.1 16.0 14.4 87.7 60.5 43.4 6.3 11.6 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.6 12.5 9.2 109.7 69.1 40.9 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.4 10.6 6.9 70.7 57.6 40.6 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.7 9.2 8.5 84.8 61.5 41.0 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.8 10.5 86.8 61.7 42.6 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.9 12.2 9.2 102.6 67.6 42.4 2.7 6.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.8 10.1 7.9 95.7 64.5 38.6 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.7 10.4 8.8 98.6 66.4 43.1 2.5 5.7 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.0 11.1 8.2 99.0 66.1 38.7 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 19.2 13.2 85.2 59.7 42.4 7.2 13.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.8 11.2 8.2 95.9 65.1 42.8 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------