***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 10.6 4.6 60.4 52.6 29.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 4.0 8.0 4.3 55.2 47.8 32.1 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 2.7 6.8 4.3 55.4 48.9 28.6 3.2 7.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.2 7.9 4.4 53.2 49.0 26.0 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.5 7.1 4.7 55.5 50.1 26.3 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 1.7 3.5 4.2 38.8 41.5 23.9 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.6 8.0 4.6 58.1 49.7 33.0 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 3.8 10.0 6.1 57.0 48.4 26.7 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 2.6 6.8 4.8 54.9 48.9 26.3 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 3.4 7.8 5.8 54.3 47.7 26.5 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 1.9 5.9 4.6 54.2 49.3 24.4 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 2.2 6.1 4.5 53.6 48.2 25.2 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 2.2 4.8 4.0 42.4 44.3 24.3 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 4.1 8.0 5.5 51.8 44.5 29.2 4.5 10.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 1.6 4.5 3.3 48.1 48.0 25.2 2.3 4.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 2.4 5.6 4.0 46.7 46.3 23.7 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.6 8.9 4.5 57.6 48.5 33.4 4.6 9.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 4.4 8.9 6.8 53.8 45.3 27.0 5.6 10.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.7 7.5 4.2 53.3 46.4 30.6 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 5.8 12.2 8.9 59.7 47.6 28.2 7.3 13.1 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 3.2 8.6 4.5 58.3 50.8 27.1 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.1 7.9 4.8 59.8 48.4 33.9 3.9 8.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.1 6.3 4.2 52.9 46.7 29.5 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.1 6.8 5.4 52.4 45.0 27.5 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 3.3 9.6 5.2 61.8 51.8 29.0 4.2 9.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 1.8 3.4 3.6 40.1 40.8 23.9 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 3.1 10.0 5.3 63.1 53.0 30.2 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.8 4.4 3.7 47.4 47.4 24.5 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 6.4 13.1 7.6 56.5 46.4 27.9 7.9 14.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 3.8 8.1 4.3 55.4 48.3 30.8 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------