***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 16.6 17.3 20.1 2.1 85.1 83.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.5 17.2 19.6 2.0 84.1 81.9 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 18.8 19.2 19.8 1.7 78.9 77.3 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 48 52 100 14.1 14.2 16.8 0.9 67.4 66.6 12.0 13.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.1 17.1 0.8 67.9 66.8 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 12.6 12.7 13.7 0.1 53.4 53.3 11.8 12.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 16.8 17.6 20.1 2.2 86.0 84.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.5 8.9 14.1 0.5 62.5 61.6 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 15.9 15.9 17.2 1.0 74.0 72.5 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.4 15.3 0.8 70.2 68.7 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.7 14.8 16.5 0.8 69.1 67.8 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 12.4 12.8 15.3 0.5 62.4 61.8 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 13.5 13.7 14.9 0.4 59.8 59.0 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.2 16.8 0.9 70.1 69.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 17.0 17.3 18.8 1.4 80.6 78.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 15.2 15.6 15.7 0.5 61.3 60.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 16.9 17.8 19.6 2.2 86.7 84.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 13.0 13.5 14.5 0.6 65.2 64.3 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 16.4 16.8 19.5 1.8 82.5 80.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 8.9 9.1 12.4 0.3 56.6 56.2 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.5 15.5 18.3 1.1 72.5 71.2 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 15.7 16.4 19.7 2.1 86.1 84.0 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 15.7 16.1 19.4 1.7 81.2 79.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.8 16.8 0.9 70.2 69.2 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.7 15.9 18.4 1.2 72.7 71.1 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 13.8 13.8 13.8 0.1 52.1 52.2 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 16.8 17.2 19.1 1.6 77.7 76.0 14.0 15.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 14.1 14.1 17.0 0.9 68.1 67.2 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 12.8 13.3 13.6 0.5 62.7 61.9 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 17.0 17.8 20.1 2.1 84.8 82.7 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------