***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.4 17.3 0.6 62.5 58.9 12.8 13.7 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.0 16.8 0.5 60.3 57.6 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 14.3 16.0 17.2 0.4 58.3 56.3 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 9.5 11.5 14.6 0.5 59.4 57.5 9.8 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 11.1 12.4 14.6 0.1 51.3 53.0 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.8 12.5 0.3 56.0 55.5 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 14.7 14.3 17.2 0.6 62.5 58.7 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 6.7 12.0 -0.2 45.9 49.8 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 12.3 13.5 14.5 0.1 51.5 53.2 12.6 13.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 12.3 13.2 12.9 -0.1 48.6 51.4 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 11.9 13.1 14.1 0.1 51.6 53.0 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 10.3 11.4 13.0 -0.1 48.7 51.6 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 11.4 12.6 12.8 0.0 50.9 52.5 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 12.9 13.9 14.3 0.0 48.9 50.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 15.8 15.8 16.6 0.9 70.4 65.0 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.7 14.1 13.6 0.1 53.3 54.0 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.5 16.6 0.5 60.8 57.7 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 10.9 11.7 12.1 -0.2 46.0 49.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 12.6 14.0 16.8 0.4 58.9 56.7 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 7.6 10.1 -0.4 40.0 46.1 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 12.1 13.3 15.9 0.1 52.1 53.0 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 12.0 13.4 16.6 0.4 59.1 56.6 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.4 16.6 0.3 57.2 55.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 12.4 13.6 14.3 0.0 51.1 52.2 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 12.5 13.8 15.9 0.3 55.8 55.6 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.5 12.3 -0.1 48.5 51.0 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 12.2 14.1 16.5 0.5 59.1 57.2 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.1 15.0 0.5 62.0 59.1 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.4 11.4 -0.3 43.1 47.9 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.4 17.2 0.6 61.6 58.3 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------