***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 12.8 12.8 16.6 1.0 67.7 64.1 10.9 11.8 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 12.9 12.9 16.4 1.1 68.9 64.7 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.4 15.1 16.7 0.9 67.5 64.0 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.3 13.9 0.8 65.8 62.9 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.2 13.5 0.5 59.0 57.7 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.3 11.8 0.4 58.5 56.9 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.1 16.6 1.1 69.6 65.3 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.7 11.5 0.4 58.4 57.6 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.2 13.6 0.4 57.8 56.5 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.0 12.2 0.3 57.2 56.4 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.7 13.0 0.4 58.7 57.8 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.1 12.1 0.4 58.7 57.7 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.9 11.4 0.1 53.0 52.6 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.9 13.8 0.5 59.5 58.1 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 13.4 13.5 15.3 1.0 69.9 65.3 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.5 12.4 0.4 57.3 56.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 13.2 13.3 16.1 1.0 67.8 63.6 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.8 11.3 0.3 57.0 56.1 9.5 10.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.9 12.9 16.3 1.0 67.9 64.1 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.8 9.2 0.1 53.3 53.4 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.0 15.2 0.6 60.3 58.6 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.3 16.0 1.0 67.5 63.7 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.2 16.1 0.8 65.9 62.8 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.4 13.5 0.5 61.0 59.1 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.5 14.9 0.7 62.5 60.4 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.3 11.6 0.4 59.1 57.5 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.4 15.7 0.9 65.1 62.1 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.1 14.2 0.8 66.0 62.6 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.6 10.7 0.2 54.6 54.3 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.5 16.7 1.2 70.3 65.9 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------