***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.2 15.2 0.5 58.7 57.7 10.9 11.8 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.9 14.9 0.4 57.7 56.3 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.1 15.2 0.4 56.8 56.2 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.0 12.5 0.3 56.4 56.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.4 12.2 0.0 51.0 52.3 9.3 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.7 10.7 0.2 54.3 54.2 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.2 15.1 0.5 58.6 56.9 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.5 10.3 0.1 52.2 52.8 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.7 12.4 0.0 50.1 51.6 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.3 11.0 0.0 50.4 51.6 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.8 11.6 0.1 51.2 52.3 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.4 10.9 0.1 52.7 53.2 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.8 10.0 10.3 0.0 49.6 50.6 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.9 12.5 0.0 50.8 51.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.1 12.6 13.8 0.5 60.5 58.9 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.7 11.2 0.1 51.4 52.3 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.4 14.6 0.4 57.5 56.3 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.9 10.1 0.0 50.5 51.4 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.0 14.9 0.4 57.1 55.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 6.0 8.2 0.0 50.0 50.9 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.3 13.9 0.1 52.2 53.2 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.4 14.5 0.4 57.3 55.7 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.4 14.7 0.3 56.4 55.1 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.4 12.2 0.1 51.9 52.3 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.8 13.7 0.3 55.4 55.6 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.6 10.4 0.2 54.7 54.7 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.3 14.4 0.4 57.0 56.4 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.3 12.7 0.4 57.2 56.8 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 9.2 9.6 0.0 49.0 50.3 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.4 15.2 0.5 58.8 57.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------