***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 13.7 14.0 17.3 1.1 78.7 72.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.6 13.9 16.9 1.0 77.9 70.7 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.0 17.2 0.8 73.7 68.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 11.4 11.4 14.5 0.6 68.7 65.1 10.1 10.7 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.0 14.3 0.3 61.1 59.3 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.0 12.2 0.2 58.6 57.2 10.4 10.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 13.8 14.1 17.2 1.1 79.8 72.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.6 12.0 0.2 57.1 56.5 5.9 6.4 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.2 14.4 0.4 62.4 60.3 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 13.1 12.9 12.8 0.3 59.7 58.3 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 12.8 12.6 13.8 0.3 61.2 59.7 11.8 12.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.9 12.8 0.2 58.5 57.6 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.8 12.4 0.1 54.8 54.5 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.7 14.4 0.3 61.6 58.9 12.9 13.3 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 14.4 14.7 16.1 1.0 79.1 73.7 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.4 13.2 0.3 58.7 57.7 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 14.0 14.3 16.7 1.0 79.2 71.8 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.5 12.0 0.2 57.0 56.0 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.8 16.9 0.9 75.9 69.4 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 7.4 10.0 0.0 49.9 50.8 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.1 12.9 15.8 0.5 64.1 61.5 12.1 12.5 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 13.0 13.2 16.7 1.0 77.5 71.1 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.1 16.7 0.8 73.2 67.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.2 14.2 0.4 63.4 60.6 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.3 15.7 0.6 67.9 64.2 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.0 12.0 0.2 56.0 55.4 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.9 14.0 16.4 0.8 73.1 68.0 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.1 14.7 0.7 69.6 66.0 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.6 11.3 0.1 53.3 53.0 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.3 17.3 1.1 79.2 72.0 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------