***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 30.6 30.8 31.2 2.1 73.9 72.5 27.7 29.0 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.0 30.1 31.2 1.9 70.6 69.1 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 29.9 29.9 30.8 1.5 66.7 65.6 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 22.5 22.6 26.7 0.4 54.2 54.0 20.9 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 30.0 29.5 27.3 -0.2 47.8 48.1 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 28.6 27.5 24.2 -0.7 40.1 40.8 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 29.8 30.0 31.4 2.2 74.1 72.5 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.0 16.5 24.1 -1.1 37.0 38.0 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 29.2 29.0 28.3 0.1 51.4 51.5 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 29.3 28.3 25.7 -0.6 43.5 44.1 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 29.6 29.0 27.4 -0.3 46.5 46.9 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 29.0 27.8 25.7 -0.7 41.3 42.1 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 30.1 29.0 26.6 -0.6 42.5 43.2 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 28.7 28.7 28.0 0.3 53.7 53.5 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 29.8 30.5 29.7 1.0 62.2 61.6 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 30.7 29.9 26.8 -0.4 44.5 45.0 28.9 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 29.4 29.7 31.1 2.2 74.4 72.5 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.2 27.0 24.5 -0.9 40.5 41.3 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 29.5 29.5 31.0 1.6 68.4 67.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 22.0 22.1 21.7 -1.8 29.5 30.6 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 29.2 29.4 29.5 0.5 56.0 55.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.9 30.7 1.9 71.1 69.4 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 29.5 29.6 30.7 1.6 67.7 66.5 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 28.5 28.3 27.8 0.2 51.8 51.8 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 29.3 29.7 28.8 0.8 59.4 58.9 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.8 28.1 24.8 -1.2 35.0 36.3 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 29.9 29.9 30.0 1.5 68.1 67.1 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 30.0 30.0 27.6 0.3 53.6 53.4 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.8 22.2 23.5 -1.2 36.6 37.5 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 29.8 30.0 31.3 2.0 71.7 70.2 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------