***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.5 28.0 0.3 54.6 54.0 24.6 26.1 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.1 27.8 0.1 50.8 51.1 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.7 25.9 27.7 -0.2 47.3 48.7 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.9 19.2 25.2 -0.1 48.2 49.4 17.9 19.3 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 24.9 25.6 25.1 -1.1 35.0 39.8 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 24.0 24.7 22.9 -0.9 35.9 40.7 24.5 25.8 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.2 28.0 0.3 54.6 53.9 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 13.3 13.3 22.6 -1.7 27.0 33.2 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 24.2 24.9 25.6 -1.1 34.9 39.4 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 24.1 24.4 23.6 -1.5 29.6 35.2 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 24.4 25.0 25.1 -1.3 32.7 37.9 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 24.1 24.4 24.1 -1.4 30.9 36.6 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 24.9 25.3 24.4 -1.3 30.9 37.0 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 23.8 24.4 24.9 -1.3 31.9 36.7 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.7 27.6 0.6 59.8 57.3 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 25.6 26.3 24.9 -1.1 34.7 39.7 26.1 27.6 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.6 27.6 0.2 53.1 52.7 23.9 25.3 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 23.2 23.3 22.6 -1.7 27.4 33.3 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.4 25.7 27.7 -0.1 48.2 49.2 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 19.4 18.9 20.2 -2.1 21.7 28.3 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 24.4 25.3 26.7 -0.8 38.7 42.3 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 24.1 25.8 27.3 0.0 49.5 50.0 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.6 27.4 -0.3 46.2 47.8 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 23.6 24.3 25.0 -1.2 33.3 38.1 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 24.5 25.9 26.0 -0.4 45.0 47.0 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 25.0 25.5 24.0 -1.1 34.4 39.7 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 24.4 26.1 27.0 0.1 51.5 51.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 27.6 27.0 25.9 0.0 49.4 50.1 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 18.7 18.4 21.6 -2.0 24.1 30.4 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.2 28.0 0.2 52.5 52.5 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------