***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 26.2 26.2 27.9 1.5 68.5 65.6 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 26.4 26.3 28.0 1.5 68.5 65.7 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 26.1 26.0 28.0 1.3 66.0 63.6 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 18.9 18.4 25.6 1.0 63.2 61.0 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.6 25.6 25.4 0.4 55.6 55.2 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.5 24.4 22.9 0.4 54.9 54.1 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 26.1 26.2 28.1 1.6 69.9 66.9 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.6 23.4 0.2 52.3 52.3 12.0 13.4 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.2 25.6 0.4 55.2 54.8 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.6 24.2 0.3 53.4 53.2 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 25.4 25.3 25.1 0.4 55.3 54.8 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.4 24.7 0.3 53.9 53.5 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 25.6 25.2 23.9 0.1 50.7 51.0 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.9 24.9 25.1 0.5 55.9 55.2 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 26.6 26.7 26.7 1.5 68.9 64.7 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.1 24.9 0.4 55.5 55.0 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 25.7 25.6 27.8 1.5 68.6 66.0 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 23.9 23.7 23.6 0.3 53.1 53.0 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 26.1 25.9 28.0 1.4 67.5 64.8 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 20.1 19.4 20.8 -0.2 47.8 48.6 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.4 26.7 0.7 58.4 57.6 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 26.1 26.0 27.6 1.4 67.3 64.8 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 26.0 25.8 27.7 1.3 65.5 63.1 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.8 25.3 0.6 56.9 56.1 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 26.2 25.6 25.8 0.9 61.5 60.1 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.4 24.7 0.6 58.4 57.1 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.0 26.9 1.3 66.6 64.2 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 26.5 26.3 25.9 1.1 64.1 61.4 23.9 25.2 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.5 19.0 22.4 0.0 50.6 50.9 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.2 28.1 1.6 69.4 66.3 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------