***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.2 25.8 0.7 58.9 56.9 22.9 24.4 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.2 25.7 0.6 57.3 55.7 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.3 25.8 0.5 56.5 55.4 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.4 23.7 0.6 57.3 55.6 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.3 23.7 0.1 51.5 51.9 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.3 21.6 0.2 52.9 52.6 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.9 25.7 0.7 58.5 56.5 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.0 13.7 22.0 0.0 50.4 51.1 12.2 13.7 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.9 23.9 0.1 50.9 51.7 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 22.8 24.5 22.6 0.0 50.2 51.2 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.1 23.5 0.2 52.1 52.5 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.4 23.3 0.2 52.1 52.4 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.1 22.5 -0.1 48.9 50.0 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 23.0 24.6 23.3 -0.1 48.9 50.4 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.8 26.3 24.7 0.9 62.3 58.3 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.9 23.4 0.2 52.5 52.6 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.2 25.5 0.6 57.5 55.9 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.6 22.0 -0.1 49.4 50.7 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.9 25.7 0.5 56.5 55.2 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.5 19.5 -0.3 46.4 48.2 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.2 24.8 0.2 52.4 52.7 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.8 25.3 0.6 57.1 55.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.9 25.5 0.4 55.2 54.5 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.4 23.5 0.1 50.6 51.7 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.0 23.9 0.3 54.2 53.7 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.5 23.2 0.4 55.6 54.8 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.2 24.8 0.6 57.5 55.9 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.8 26.0 24.1 0.7 58.9 56.5 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 18.9 20.9 -0.2 47.6 49.4 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.1 25.8 0.7 58.2 56.3 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------