***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 27.0 27.1 28.2 1.2 71.5 67.7 25.1 26.0 26.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 26.9 26.9 28.2 1.0 68.8 65.2 25.1 25.9 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 26.9 26.7 28.1 0.8 64.4 61.9 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.5 19.6 25.3 0.5 59.0 57.4 18.4 19.2 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 25.7 26.5 25.4 -0.2 46.6 47.6 25.8 26.7 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.2 22.9 -0.3 44.1 45.5 24.6 25.5 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 26.6 26.7 28.3 1.2 72.2 68.0 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 14.0 14.4 23.0 -0.6 37.1 39.7 14.2 14.9 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 25.2 26.0 25.8 -0.1 47.7 48.4 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 25.0 25.5 24.0 -0.5 41.2 43.0 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 26.8 26.1 25.3 -0.2 45.2 46.4 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 26.1 25.3 24.5 -0.4 42.0 43.8 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.3 24.4 -0.5 40.2 42.5 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 26.3 25.7 25.3 -0.1 47.0 47.5 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 27.6 27.7 27.2 1.0 69.3 65.2 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.1 25.0 -0.2 45.6 46.9 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 26.2 26.3 28.0 1.1 71.3 67.5 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 24.1 24.5 23.2 -0.6 38.5 40.7 24.3 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 26.6 26.5 28.1 0.9 66.4 63.3 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 20.0 20.0 20.5 -1.1 28.4 32.1 20.3 21.2 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.3 26.9 0.1 52.8 52.7 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 26.6 26.6 27.7 1.0 68.2 65.1 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.5 27.9 0.8 64.1 61.4 24.9 25.8 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.5 25.4 -0.1 47.8 48.3 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.6 26.1 0.4 58.1 56.9 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.2 24.2 -0.3 44.0 45.6 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 26.8 26.7 27.2 0.9 67.0 63.9 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.1 27.2 25.9 0.5 59.9 58.0 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 19.5 19.7 22.1 -0.8 33.7 36.6 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.8 28.3 1.1 70.2 66.3 24.9 25.8 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------