***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.6 5.7 67.0 54.1 39.8 2.4 4.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.0 8.6 6.5 79.9 59.3 38.2 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.8 7.0 6.1 64.3 54.2 39.3 3.0 6.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.2 11.2 8.7 96.8 65.5 59.3 2.7 6.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.2 7.2 9.1 102.7 66.4 58.9 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 6.9 10.3 11.2 107.9 67.9 62.2 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 2.4 8.8 5.7 71.7 55.9 36.0 2.8 6.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.1 18.0 13.7 108.9 68.3 58.7 4.2 9.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.4 6.4 63.4 54.1 44.8 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.9 11.8 90.4 62.8 53.2 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.3 8.4 91.3 64.0 54.4 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.4 7.4 9.9 102.2 66.4 56.7 2.1 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.0 7.6 91.0 63.3 54.1 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.2 11.7 9.1 73.5 57.5 43.7 4.0 8.8 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.5 5.4 76.0 59.8 51.6 1.6 3.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.9 7.7 7.7 94.6 64.9 56.0 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.1 12.2 7.3 91.6 62.4 39.7 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 14.1 15.1 105.6 66.3 56.3 3.3 7.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.4 9.3 6.2 71.7 56.4 38.6 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 16.2 19.3 20.7 140.5 75.6 67.8 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.8 5.8 60.3 52.7 42.2 2.2 5.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.8 12.6 6.9 77.7 58.0 39.9 5.1 9.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.1 7.7 6.2 66.2 54.3 39.7 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.0 8.9 75.2 57.6 44.2 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.7 6.5 76.3 58.9 49.3 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 10.2 14.1 15.2 192.6 81.1 71.7 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.6 5.9 70.8 55.8 43.1 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.0 7.7 8.1 90.4 63.6 56.3 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.4 17.8 16.8 120.5 70.6 60.6 3.7 8.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.0 5.6 5.7 66.7 54.5 35.6 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------