***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.0 22.7 15.5 154.7 78.3 55.5 4.4 8.7 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 5.1 21.6 12.6 144.7 76.3 52.6 5.0 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.6 25.2 13.4 136.0 74.7 54.1 4.6 10.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 34.1 18.4 199.9 84.8 60.1 4.7 9.8 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.7 31.1 15.4 172.6 81.2 55.6 5.0 10.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.0 21.5 15.7 167.1 80.1 57.3 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.3 16.8 14.6 165.4 80.2 53.2 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 28.9 40.8 16.7 177.6 81.9 59.3 9.3 16.1 25.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.6 29.4 15.7 161.6 79.5 60.3 4.9 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.4 34.6 17.2 168.4 80.4 58.8 6.6 12.6 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.7 27.8 16.0 179.1 82.2 57.8 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.9 25.3 14.4 185.6 83.0 58.3 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 18.9 32.6 16.9 213.8 86.5 65.8 4.8 9.3 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.1 30.9 17.5 146.2 76.7 55.4 7.0 13.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.3 15.4 16.3 192.0 83.8 57.9 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 18.7 31.9 16.9 203.6 85.4 61.9 4.1 8.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.1 18.8 13.8 157.8 78.9 49.8 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.8 22.0 16.4 140.8 75.6 56.1 5.5 10.1 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 16.5 12.1 134.4 74.2 52.7 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.0 28.9 17.4 152.3 78.0 60.2 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.5 22.9 14.5 147.0 76.8 54.5 3.8 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.9 22.5 13.6 154.8 78.3 50.5 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.9 21.2 12.9 129.8 73.1 52.4 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.6 32.3 16.0 142.2 75.9 57.4 7.0 13.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.3 29.8 19.3 173.1 81.4 58.7 3.9 9.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.9 17.4 11.3 150.5 76.4 53.6 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 25.8 17.9 161.9 79.6 56.7 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.5 20.6 16.3 198.7 84.6 58.8 3.4 6.4 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 30.2 37.2 18.4 147.2 76.9 60.2 7.0 14.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.6 18.4 13.3 145.5 76.5 54.9 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------