***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.8 8.4 7.8 81.5 59.9 39.4 2.7 5.8 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.5 7.2 6.9 81.0 59.5 39.4 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.7 9.0 8.2 86.6 61.7 40.4 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.3 13.6 7.1 77.3 59.2 40.2 4.9 9.9 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 2.9 9.2 7.0 79.0 59.6 38.3 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.3 12.0 9.0 82.2 59.9 39.9 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.2 10.0 7.3 85.7 61.5 39.6 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.5 24.5 9.8 95.9 64.0 43.1 7.3 14.9 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.9 9.4 7.7 81.2 60.4 41.3 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.8 11.6 9.9 91.0 62.9 42.6 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.8 10.6 7.0 82.6 60.8 38.9 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.3 14.3 7.5 92.4 63.3 40.9 4.5 9.2 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.5 15.6 9.4 111.4 69.2 44.2 4.3 8.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.7 11.3 10.4 85.9 60.4 41.8 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.1 7.2 6.2 79.9 60.2 39.0 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.5 12.3 7.9 94.0 64.3 41.7 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.9 8.7 7.1 81.2 60.2 39.4 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.5 13.9 12.5 98.4 64.7 44.1 4.5 8.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.3 10.9 7.2 83.5 60.0 39.5 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 18.1 13.2 99.7 64.7 44.6 6.3 11.6 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.6 9.0 7.3 80.0 59.8 39.4 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.4 7.6 81.2 59.9 40.0 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.7 9.1 7.9 88.6 61.2 39.9 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.1 11.6 10.9 94.7 63.7 43.1 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.9 8.4 7.4 74.5 57.6 40.0 2.7 6.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.5 10.0 7.1 95.9 64.5 33.8 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.6 7.5 7.6 74.6 57.3 39.0 2.5 5.7 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.1 9.4 7.1 81.7 60.9 39.5 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.8 22.5 13.1 99.3 64.7 46.2 7.2 13.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.0 9.6 7.4 83.8 60.5 39.2 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------