***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 4.4 18.9 12.5 113.4 69.4 46.2 4.2 9.2 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.5 15.4 11.1 106.9 67.4 44.3 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.7 14.7 12.5 112.9 69.1 46.5 3.2 7.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.8 12.7 10.9 87.6 62.6 38.3 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.3 10.4 9.8 81.8 60.3 38.1 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.4 7.3 10.6 83.8 59.8 39.8 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.6 15.2 11.2 108.5 67.9 44.7 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.5 13.5 10.4 78.6 57.5 40.6 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.4 10.4 84.3 60.7 41.0 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.1 11.3 81.2 58.6 41.0 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.7 8.4 73.0 56.4 36.1 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.1 8.3 74.2 56.5 38.1 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.2 9.7 82.2 59.8 39.3 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.1 19.5 15.7 107.4 67.2 47.2 4.5 10.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.1 7.9 9.5 85.5 62.7 36.1 2.3 4.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.3 8.9 77.2 58.4 36.0 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.3 16.8 10.8 102.2 66.1 43.5 4.6 9.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.9 15.5 14.2 92.6 62.1 45.5 5.6 10.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.6 15.1 11.4 108.6 67.7 45.0 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.2 16.7 13.3 82.8 58.3 43.1 7.3 13.1 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.3 14.1 11.4 98.9 65.4 43.4 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.3 15.1 11.7 103.6 66.3 44.5 3.9 8.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 13.6 12.1 110.1 68.2 45.5 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.3 15.8 14.4 104.9 66.4 47.4 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.3 16.5 12.4 103.6 67.0 44.8 4.2 9.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.0 7.1 7.6 76.9 57.5 33.3 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.0 17.9 12.8 110.7 68.7 45.6 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.2 7.2 10.0 83.9 61.5 35.6 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.3 21.4 14.8 93.6 62.1 46.2 7.9 14.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.6 15.1 11.8 110.9 68.6 45.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------