***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 25.3 52.0 41.5 106.1 62.7 50.3 25.1 39.1 56.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 25.5 49.3 37.0 103.9 61.6 49.5 26.4 38.9 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.3 52.3 40.2 100.9 60.1 50.3 26.4 41.4 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 56.1 67.3 45.1 113.3 66.6 57.2 32.3 47.6 66.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 44.7 51.9 41.4 106.9 63.5 55.1 24.6 38.1 54.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 43.0 48.7 46.6 107.2 63.4 56.2 22.8 35.6 51.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.1 54.7 38.7 109.1 64.2 50.0 27.3 40.7 57.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 78.8 93.2 50.6 111.3 65.2 57.7 49.2 70.3 95.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 51.7 52.8 40.3 96.8 58.4 51.1 32.8 45.6 60.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 53.4 59.1 50.2 104.9 62.0 54.2 33.0 47.0 63.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 45.0 49.1 39.9 104.3 62.3 53.4 26.5 38.6 52.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 44.2 51.9 40.1 109.3 64.5 56.5 26.5 38.8 53.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 43.3 55.3 43.7 119.6 68.9 58.6 24.7 37.2 51.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 42.0 72.1 52.7 103.2 60.5 51.5 42.6 59.8 79.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.9 35.9 37.4 108.6 65.4 55.0 13.4 23.4 36.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 44.4 53.1 41.4 113.8 66.6 56.8 24.0 36.9 52.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 31.1 57.1 38.9 108.3 63.9 49.6 31.3 44.1 59.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 58.3 65.4 58.2 108.5 63.4 55.1 35.2 50.5 69.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 30.1 53.2 37.0 100.3 59.5 49.4 31.6 44.5 59.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 66.3 82.0 64.5 116.5 67.7 60.3 40.3 58.1 79.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 48.8 48.7 39.0 97.2 58.7 50.4 25.6 39.9 57.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 58.6 61.2 39.7 103.7 61.3 48.8 36.0 50.2 66.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 50.5 51.0 39.2 99.7 59.1 49.9 29.2 42.4 58.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 61.2 65.1 50.3 104.2 61.3 52.4 38.3 53.5 70.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 49.6 57.8 45.5 109.7 64.7 53.8 25.2 40.5 59.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 36.8 51.4 41.2 125.1 71.0 62.8 20.4 31.8 45.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 51.9 57.3 44.3 107.3 63.3 51.1 26.3 41.8 61.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 36.5 42.7 41.5 110.7 65.8 56.3 20.7 30.8 42.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 83.6 98.6 63.0 114.1 66.4 58.1 54.1 74.6 97.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 24.6 46.9 38.2 102.9 61.0 48.9 26.3 37.9 51.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------