***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 13.3 13.3 16.0 -1.7 21.8 23.8 14.0 14.9 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 12.9 12.9 15.8 -1.8 20.7 22.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 15.5 15.5 16.3 -1.6 23.2 25.1 16.2 17.1 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 11.5 11.6 14.3 -1.1 30.5 32.6 11.8 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 11.7 11.6 14.4 -1.5 21.4 23.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 11.4 11.4 12.1 -1.0 27.3 30.3 11.7 12.4 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 13.4 13.4 16.1 -1.6 23.7 25.7 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 6.3 6.1 11.9 -1.4 20.6 23.8 7.0 7.9 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 13.1 13.1 14.6 -1.3 23.5 25.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 13.0 12.9 12.8 -1.4 20.6 23.3 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 12.4 12.3 14.0 -1.5 19.4 22.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 11.1 10.9 13.0 -1.4 22.7 25.9 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 11.9 11.6 12.8 -1.5 17.5 21.8 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 13.7 13.8 14.3 -1.4 24.1 26.1 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.0 16.5 -0.5 39.0 40.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 13.5 13.4 13.6 -1.3 22.2 25.6 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 13.7 13.8 15.6 -1.6 22.9 24.9 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 11.3 11.3 12.2 -1.4 22.7 24.9 11.8 12.7 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 13.6 13.6 16.0 -1.6 23.1 25.0 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 7.4 7.4 10.3 -1.5 20.4 23.0 8.0 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 12.7 12.7 15.5 -1.6 21.2 23.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 12.8 12.8 15.9 -1.6 23.3 25.1 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 13.2 13.2 16.3 -1.2 28.0 29.7 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 13.4 13.5 14.4 -1.3 25.9 27.8 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 12.8 12.6 15.1 -1.8 18.9 21.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 12.5 12.3 12.0 -1.4 20.5 24.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 12.8 12.8 15.5 -1.7 21.2 23.5 13.7 14.9 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 12.4 12.6 14.9 -0.8 34.9 36.7 12.5 13.2 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 10.6 10.4 11.4 -1.5 19.7 22.0 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 13.4 13.4 16.2 -1.7 21.9 23.9 14.2 15.1 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------