***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.8 17.4 0.4 57.3 54.5 12.5 13.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 11.9 13.4 17.0 0.2 54.8 52.6 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.8 17.7 0.4 59.2 56.4 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 9.3 11.4 15.1 0.6 62.1 58.4 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.5 15.3 0.3 56.7 54.9 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.6 12.8 0.3 56.6 56.1 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 12.3 13.8 17.3 0.4 57.2 54.3 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.9 12.7 0.2 53.8 52.9 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.7 15.4 0.4 59.1 56.5 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 12.1 13.4 13.6 0.2 54.8 53.6 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.1 14.6 0.2 55.0 54.1 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.6 13.7 0.3 57.2 55.7 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.3 13.0 -0.1 48.0 49.6 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.0 15.1 0.3 55.7 54.0 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.5 16.9 1.0 72.0 65.9 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.0 14.0 0.2 54.7 54.3 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 12.6 13.9 16.7 0.3 55.4 52.7 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.9 12.9 0.2 54.4 53.5 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.7 17.2 0.3 56.9 54.2 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.0 10.8 0.0 49.8 50.5 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 11.9 13.2 16.5 0.3 56.0 54.4 12.1 12.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 11.7 13.0 16.8 0.2 54.1 52.3 11.9 12.8 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.5 17.3 0.6 62.1 57.7 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.7 15.1 0.4 59.1 56.5 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.6 16.3 0.3 56.0 53.5 12.3 13.3 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.6 13.0 0.3 55.9 55.8 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 12.0 13.7 16.8 0.3 56.2 53.5 12.2 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.0 15.5 0.7 65.7 62.0 11.2 12.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.3 10.6 12.1 0.1 51.2 51.2 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.8 17.4 0.3 56.4 54.0 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------