***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.1 16.2 0.5 58.6 57.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.1 15.8 0.4 56.9 55.7 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.6 16.5 0.6 61.8 59.5 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.3 14.1 0.9 67.1 63.8 8.0 9.2 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 11.6 11.1 13.8 0.6 61.6 59.7 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.8 10.6 12.1 0.7 65.5 63.1 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.3 16.0 0.4 57.8 56.3 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 6.3 5.9 11.8 0.6 62.3 60.8 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.2 14.0 0.5 61.0 59.3 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 12.3 11.9 12.5 0.5 60.7 59.5 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.1 11.7 13.3 0.6 62.6 60.8 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.3 12.5 0.6 64.1 61.8 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.0 11.8 0.4 59.7 58.8 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.2 12.8 13.9 0.5 61.3 59.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.5 15.4 1.1 72.0 66.9 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.0 12.6 12.8 0.6 63.5 61.5 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.5 15.5 0.3 55.1 54.3 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.0 11.7 0.6 62.6 60.5 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.3 16.0 0.5 59.0 57.3 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.5 7.1 9.6 0.5 60.9 59.9 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.7 15.3 0.5 59.0 57.7 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.7 15.5 0.4 56.9 55.5 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.9 16.0 0.7 63.3 60.5 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.4 13.8 0.7 63.8 61.0 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.2 14.8 0.5 58.5 57.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.4 11.9 0.6 63.7 61.6 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.6 15.4 0.5 58.2 57.1 10.7 12.0 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.1 11.1 14.3 0.9 69.3 65.2 9.5 10.2 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.0 11.2 0.6 62.4 60.4 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.6 16.2 0.5 58.8 57.2 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------