***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.1 15.1 0.4 56.8 54.1 10.9 11.8 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.8 14.7 0.3 54.7 53.3 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.3 15.3 0.5 59.4 56.1 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.5 12.7 0.7 63.3 57.9 8.3 9.5 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.9 12.6 0.5 59.1 55.9 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.2 9.9 10.9 0.5 60.2 56.4 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.2 14.9 0.4 56.8 54.2 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.8 10.6 0.3 56.0 54.5 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.2 12.8 0.4 58.5 55.7 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.5 11.2 0.3 55.4 53.8 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.1 12.0 0.4 57.9 55.3 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.6 11.2 0.4 58.1 55.9 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.2 10.6 0.2 54.9 53.1 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.2 12.8 0.3 56.9 54.9 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.9 14.1 0.9 68.1 61.5 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.0 11.5 0.4 58.8 55.7 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.3 14.4 0.3 54.7 53.5 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.1 10.4 0.2 54.9 53.5 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.0 14.8 0.3 56.0 54.2 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.2 8.4 0.1 52.8 52.1 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.6 14.2 0.4 57.9 55.2 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.4 14.4 0.2 54.7 53.7 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.6 14.9 0.5 59.8 56.8 10.1 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.7 12.5 0.4 58.3 55.7 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.9 13.7 0.4 56.6 53.9 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.6 10.6 0.3 56.5 53.7 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.4 14.4 0.4 57.0 54.1 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.8 13.0 0.8 65.3 59.7 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.5 9.8 0.2 53.8 53.0 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.4 15.0 0.3 56.3 54.0 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------