***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 12.4 12.9 16.2 -0.1 46.3 47.2 12.5 13.0 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.0 12.5 15.8 -0.2 42.9 44.9 12.1 12.7 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.0 16.4 0.0 49.8 49.5 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.8 14.1 0.3 58.0 55.9 9.9 10.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 11.0 11.5 14.0 -0.1 48.3 48.6 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.8 12.0 0.1 53.6 53.1 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.5 12.9 16.1 -0.1 46.6 47.4 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.2 11.7 -0.1 46.3 47.1 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.8 14.2 0.0 50.8 50.7 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.5 12.5 -0.1 46.0 46.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.1 13.5 -0.1 47.3 48.0 11.7 12.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.6 12.6 0.0 49.9 49.9 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.0 11.3 12.1 -0.2 41.9 44.0 11.1 11.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.7 13.1 14.0 -0.1 47.7 48.5 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.2 15.7 0.6 70.3 65.6 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.0 13.0 0.0 49.4 49.8 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.2 15.6 -0.2 43.4 45.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.0 11.8 -0.1 46.6 47.3 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.9 16.0 -0.1 46.3 47.2 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.7 7.1 9.8 -0.2 41.8 43.6 6.8 7.3 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.3 15.4 -0.1 46.9 47.7 12.0 12.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.2 15.6 -0.2 43.7 45.4 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.4 16.1 0.1 54.3 52.9 11.9 12.3 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.8 14.0 0.1 51.7 51.4 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.6 15.0 -0.2 44.5 45.8 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.7 11.9 -0.1 48.1 49.2 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 12.3 12.9 15.5 -0.1 45.6 46.7 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.7 14.4 0.4 63.0 60.4 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.1 11.1 -0.2 43.5 44.8 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 12.6 13.1 16.2 -0.1 45.6 46.6 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------