***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 27.2 27.4 26.8 -1.5 32.8 34.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.7 27.2 27.5 -1.2 36.8 38.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.2 27.2 -1.4 35.3 36.6 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.2 24.6 -0.9 39.6 40.7 20.7 22.0 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.6 24.8 -1.9 29.1 31.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 25.6 25.7 22.1 -2.1 24.5 28.1 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.3 26.8 27.3 -1.2 36.3 37.7 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 15.2 15.5 22.5 -2.0 27.9 30.2 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 26.9 27.3 26.1 -1.4 34.5 36.0 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 26.6 27.0 23.8 -1.8 30.5 32.4 27.2 28.6 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 26.9 27.1 24.9 -2.1 26.9 29.4 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 26.2 26.5 23.8 -1.9 28.5 31.0 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 26.9 26.7 23.9 -2.6 20.5 24.1 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.7 27.2 26.0 -1.1 37.6 38.7 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 29.7 29.1 27.8 -0.1 48.5 48.6 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 27.8 27.9 24.4 -2.1 26.2 29.1 28.6 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.4 27.1 -1.2 36.9 38.1 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 25.6 26.1 23.1 -1.6 32.6 34.2 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.0 27.7 -1.0 39.0 40.0 26.5 27.8 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 21.4 21.6 20.7 -2.1 26.6 29.4 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 26.6 27.0 26.5 -1.8 30.6 32.2 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 28.5 26.9 26.9 -1.3 35.3 36.4 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.4 27.7 28.1 -0.4 45.8 46.2 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.3 26.9 25.8 -1.2 36.6 37.7 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 26.9 27.0 25.4 -1.8 29.7 31.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 26.8 26.9 23.2 -2.1 24.5 28.4 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 26.7 26.8 26.1 -1.6 32.0 34.0 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.0 28.6 25.7 -0.8 39.9 41.1 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 21.0 21.5 22.3 -1.8 30.9 32.8 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.0 27.4 -1.2 36.1 37.5 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------