***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.5 26.7 1.0 62.9 60.2 22.8 24.4 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.5 26.7 0.9 61.5 58.6 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.7 27.2 1.3 65.3 61.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 19.0 19.5 25.9 2.1 74.5 69.7 15.6 17.2 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 26.5 26.4 25.7 1.5 67.4 64.5 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.4 23.4 1.5 68.8 65.3 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.2 26.6 0.9 61.5 58.6 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.6 24.0 1.4 66.7 63.8 11.8 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 26.1 26.0 25.9 1.5 67.1 64.0 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 25.6 25.5 24.6 1.4 66.4 63.5 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 26.3 26.2 25.6 1.6 68.4 65.4 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 25.4 25.5 25.3 1.6 68.9 65.7 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 26.3 26.2 24.5 1.3 65.6 63.3 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.8 25.4 25.1 1.1 63.5 60.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 26.7 27.4 26.8 2.3 78.2 72.2 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 27.2 27.2 25.5 1.7 70.2 66.9 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.5 26.2 0.7 58.5 56.3 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 24.7 24.6 24.0 1.4 66.3 63.1 21.8 23.2 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.4 26.9 1.1 63.2 60.0 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.9 20.6 21.4 1.1 63.4 61.0 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.7 26.4 1.2 63.9 61.3 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.9 26.0 0.7 58.0 56.0 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 25.9 25.7 27.1 1.4 66.6 62.8 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 25.6 25.4 25.5 1.5 67.1 63.3 22.5 24.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.8 25.3 1.1 64.1 61.4 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 26.1 26.4 25.2 1.9 72.6 68.7 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.5 25.8 1.0 62.5 60.0 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 26.6 27.1 26.2 2.1 75.8 70.6 23.6 25.0 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.9 22.9 1.2 63.8 61.2 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.5 26.8 1.1 62.8 59.7 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------