***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 24.8 25.5 25.6 1.0 62.9 58.5 22.7 24.3 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.4 25.6 0.9 61.6 57.0 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.8 26.1 1.3 65.3 60.1 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 19.4 19.9 24.6 1.9 72.7 66.4 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.7 26.7 24.6 1.4 66.4 61.8 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 24.6 25.7 22.2 1.4 66.1 62.1 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.6 25.0 25.5 0.9 61.3 56.8 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.0 22.8 1.4 65.7 62.0 12.2 13.6 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.3 26.2 24.8 1.4 66.1 61.6 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 25.0 25.9 23.5 1.3 65.5 61.6 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.4 26.4 24.4 1.5 66.9 62.7 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 25.8 25.8 24.1 1.5 66.8 62.9 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 25.7 26.5 23.3 1.2 63.1 60.2 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.8 24.1 1.2 63.9 59.2 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 26.7 27.5 25.4 2.1 75.5 68.9 23.7 25.2 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 27.4 27.4 24.2 1.6 67.7 63.5 24.1 25.7 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.1 25.0 0.6 57.9 54.6 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.1 25.0 23.0 1.3 65.2 61.2 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.3 25.8 1.1 63.7 58.5 22.7 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 20.2 20.9 20.4 1.1 63.0 60.1 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 25.4 26.0 25.4 1.1 63.6 59.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.8 24.9 0.6 58.0 55.0 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.8 26.0 1.4 67.0 61.0 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.7 24.4 1.4 66.2 61.2 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 25.0 25.7 24.2 1.1 64.1 59.4 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 26.7 26.8 23.9 1.7 69.2 64.5 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 24.8 25.4 24.8 1.0 62.4 58.1 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 26.9 27.4 24.9 2.0 73.1 67.2 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.5 20.2 21.9 1.1 63.3 60.0 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.3 25.7 1.0 62.9 58.0 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------