***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 26.1 26.0 26.8 0.3 55.2 54.0 24.9 25.8 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.0 27.0 0.4 56.7 54.7 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 26.0 26.2 27.3 0.5 59.5 57.1 24.9 25.8 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 19.9 20.0 25.5 1.2 70.4 67.2 18.1 19.0 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 26.7 26.9 25.5 0.5 58.2 56.6 25.6 26.5 27.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 25.6 25.7 23.1 0.4 57.0 55.5 24.4 25.3 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.7 26.9 0.4 56.5 54.5 24.5 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 14.9 15.1 23.6 0.4 57.0 55.7 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 26.2 26.5 26.2 0.6 61.4 59.3 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 26.0 26.1 24.5 0.5 58.0 56.3 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 26.4 26.6 25.5 0.5 58.3 56.7 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 25.7 26.0 24.9 0.6 60.1 58.3 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 26.8 26.6 24.5 0.1 52.0 51.4 25.7 26.5 27.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 25.9 26.1 25.6 0.5 58.9 56.4 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 27.6 27.9 27.2 1.6 77.0 73.0 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 27.3 27.6 25.2 0.5 59.7 57.9 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.1 26.5 0.2 53.5 52.1 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 25.0 25.2 23.8 0.5 58.8 56.7 24.0 24.8 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 25.7 25.9 27.3 0.5 59.6 57.0 24.6 25.4 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 21.2 21.1 21.3 0.1 52.8 51.9 20.1 21.0 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 26.3 26.2 26.6 0.3 55.3 54.1 25.1 26.0 26.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.5 26.4 0.1 51.4 50.6 24.6 25.4 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 25.8 26.4 27.6 0.9 66.8 62.7 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 25.6 26.0 25.7 0.7 61.9 58.9 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 26.3 26.2 25.5 0.3 54.8 53.6 25.0 25.9 26.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 26.5 26.8 24.6 0.7 62.4 60.4 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 26.0 25.9 26.0 0.2 54.6 53.4 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.6 26.1 1.2 71.3 68.2 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 20.5 20.6 22.8 0.3 55.5 53.9 19.5 20.3 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.8 25.9 27.1 0.4 57.5 55.4 24.7 25.5 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------