***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.2 5.2 61.6 51.4 39.8 2.1 4.8 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.2 5.9 4.2 50.5 45.5 32.9 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.4 5.9 75.6 55.8 38.8 2.7 6.5 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.9 17.3 11.0 130.4 73.1 49.1 3.7 7.7 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.7 15.2 10.5 147.1 76.4 50.4 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.2 19.6 15.7 187.3 83.3 54.7 3.0 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.9 4.9 4.1 47.5 43.9 33.8 2.7 6.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.7 24.9 13.7 137.9 74.8 43.9 4.7 10.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.9 16.4 9.0 118.6 70.4 46.9 2.4 6.7 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.5 15.5 13.3 133.9 73.9 46.5 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.0 19.7 13.1 195.6 83.7 50.3 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.3 11.6 11.4 161.6 78.7 44.8 2.6 4.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 12.0 25.8 19.3 275.0 91.2 58.2 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 3.6 13.0 7.6 78.8 57.5 36.1 4.5 9.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.8 13.2 9.3 153.9 76.8 49.9 1.7 4.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.6 20.3 14.6 207.4 84.7 53.4 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 3.9 6.9 3.8 43.5 41.2 29.5 5.0 9.3 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.1 16.8 12.4 106.6 66.3 43.0 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.3 7.1 4.8 57.7 48.8 33.8 3.5 7.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.6 22.2 17.0 151.6 77.0 47.8 4.6 9.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.2 11.9 7.7 100.0 64.6 44.6 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 4.5 8.9 4.2 49.1 44.0 29.0 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.4 8.9 5.9 70.5 54.4 35.9 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.5 13.8 8.8 99.2 64.5 39.9 3.6 7.9 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.7 11.4 8.2 96.5 63.6 48.3 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.0 18.1 11.0 183.1 82.7 47.7 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.3 9.1 6.1 67.5 53.6 41.6 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.6 16.7 12.3 168.3 80.3 51.2 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 4.1 16.9 12.1 105.8 65.9 41.3 4.3 9.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.3 4.4 4.4 54.5 47.5 35.0 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------