***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.4 8.9 81.4 58.5 43.2 4.3 8.5 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 12.1 9.1 84.9 59.4 42.7 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.3 11.6 8.6 77.7 56.5 42.9 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.2 7.4 77.2 57.3 40.6 4.0 8.6 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 4.0 9.4 6.4 67.7 51.9 36.2 4.3 8.8 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.2 7.4 66.8 52.0 39.0 3.9 7.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.6 10.1 92.9 62.7 46.2 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.1 19.1 9.2 85.9 59.2 43.6 7.7 14.4 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.5 11.8 7.5 75.5 55.8 42.1 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.3 14.2 8.9 78.8 56.7 42.6 5.8 11.3 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 4.2 9.0 6.9 67.6 50.3 35.1 4.7 9.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.5 7.7 83.1 58.2 41.6 3.9 7.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 3.3 7.2 5.5 56.1 47.2 29.7 4.0 7.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.8 14.8 11.0 83.2 57.5 43.7 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.1 6.7 73.9 56.4 39.2 1.8 3.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.6 8.6 6.6 70.1 53.3 36.2 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.4 9.5 86.8 60.9 44.2 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 11.8 10.3 83.6 58.7 43.8 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 11.3 9.2 86.2 59.8 43.0 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.2 13.3 9.6 75.4 54.4 39.6 6.5 11.6 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.8 7.4 70.9 54.1 40.5 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 7.3 14.6 10.3 92.4 62.5 45.6 7.3 11.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.2 12.5 9.7 88.2 60.1 44.1 4.9 9.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.0 15.1 9.9 80.4 57.0 42.1 6.5 12.2 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.2 9.0 74.4 55.1 40.5 3.4 7.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.1 6.8 75.1 55.8 43.0 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.1 9.9 83.1 58.9 43.9 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.0 6.4 73.4 56.4 39.2 3.1 5.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.0 19.0 11.2 83.5 57.5 43.5 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.1 9.5 88.1 60.6 44.2 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------