***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.5 9.7 90.1 63.5 47.6 2.6 6.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 11.1 10.9 108.2 68.7 47.9 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.4 10.3 9.7 88.6 62.8 47.1 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.3 14.9 8.1 72.3 57.7 40.0 6.1 11.6 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.6 10.6 8.2 74.8 58.3 40.6 4.6 8.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.1 10.9 9.0 75.5 57.0 40.0 4.3 8.6 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.9 13.6 10.3 103.1 67.3 47.4 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.0 19.4 9.2 74.8 56.2 41.7 7.7 15.6 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.3 8.7 75.0 58.2 42.7 4.1 7.9 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.7 9.9 76.3 57.5 43.3 4.1 8.1 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.2 9.9 7.6 71.6 56.0 37.3 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.4 7.1 71.1 55.3 39.3 4.9 9.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 3.4 8.2 6.4 59.6 50.8 31.5 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.4 14.4 12.7 90.7 63.3 46.2 4.3 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.9 6.8 68.0 56.9 38.2 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.5 9.0 6.8 65.5 53.9 34.5 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.5 16.0 11.9 115.9 70.4 47.5 3.3 7.4 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 11.0 10.8 74.7 56.4 43.4 4.5 8.9 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.8 15.0 10.6 102.9 67.1 47.0 3.6 7.8 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.6 13.3 10.0 65.7 51.2 37.9 6.8 12.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.9 8.3 74.5 58.4 42.9 3.6 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.3 16.5 12.6 116.3 70.2 47.1 4.6 8.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.0 10.7 9.9 90.3 63.6 44.7 2.7 6.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.3 12.3 10.7 81.4 60.0 45.5 3.9 8.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.7 9.2 78.6 59.9 43.2 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.0 6.8 74.6 57.0 39.6 3.3 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.7 11.4 10.5 91.3 63.9 47.4 3.0 6.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.6 8.9 7.5 70.8 57.2 38.3 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.5 18.4 11.1 73.7 55.3 42.8 8.4 15.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.5 13.5 10.7 103.8 67.5 48.8 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------