***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 4.7 17.0 9.2 99.4 66.1 47.9 4.8 9.7 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 14.7 8.6 99.3 65.6 48.4 4.5 8.7 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.0 14.2 9.2 99.1 65.6 49.5 3.5 7.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 13.8 9.4 95.8 64.8 46.0 3.9 8.1 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.7 12.1 8.5 91.4 63.0 46.2 3.6 7.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.2 10.1 88.5 62.2 42.7 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.6 8.5 96.5 64.4 46.4 3.9 8.0 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.8 18.3 9.6 89.9 61.5 46.2 7.0 12.7 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.2 11.8 8.8 93.3 63.3 49.4 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.2 13.4 10.2 92.6 62.4 48.2 5.2 9.3 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.9 8.0 90.5 62.5 44.8 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.7 10.4 7.6 85.7 60.7 43.8 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.2 8.4 7.2 73.2 56.6 37.1 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 17.0 11.2 92.5 62.7 49.9 4.7 10.5 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 8.8 8.1 95.4 65.1 42.7 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.3 9.1 7.5 81.4 59.4 41.4 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.5 13.8 8.7 94.4 64.0 46.9 4.1 8.4 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.8 16.6 11.0 88.6 60.7 47.6 6.5 12.0 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 14.2 8.7 98.2 65.4 49.0 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.1 17.0 11.3 81.8 57.6 43.2 8.2 13.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.1 8.8 95.6 64.6 48.5 4.8 9.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.9 9.5 94.9 64.4 47.4 3.5 7.8 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.9 8.4 90.7 62.8 47.7 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.2 16.4 10.7 97.8 64.3 50.5 4.4 9.7 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.0 17.1 10.2 102.3 66.6 47.3 4.6 9.5 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.8 8.5 7.1 76.0 58.4 40.9 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.3 18.0 10.0 101.6 66.6 47.8 3.8 9.1 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.8 8.6 90.0 63.0 43.4 2.8 5.7 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.6 20.7 11.3 86.7 60.1 47.3 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.6 14.4 8.9 100.0 65.8 47.9 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------