***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 48.5 41.3 33.1 83.7 51.3 46.1 25.6 40.2 58.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 48.3 43.6 32.9 86.8 53.2 47.0 27.9 41.0 56.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.2 44.7 33.4 85.4 52.2 46.2 26.8 42.4 62.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 58.9 56.7 35.9 92.0 56.3 47.9 34.0 50.1 68.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 48.6 45.7 33.6 91.0 55.5 48.4 26.5 40.6 57.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 23.5 44.9 42.2 98.7 58.6 47.8 24.1 37.0 53.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 50.6 44.5 33.0 86.1 52.4 46.2 28.2 42.3 58.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 51.0 82.1 41.5 95.7 56.0 47.4 51.6 73.3 98.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 55.3 51.0 33.9 88.3 53.9 47.5 34.2 47.7 63.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 34.3 53.6 42.3 93.7 55.3 47.9 34.5 48.8 65.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 47.3 47.2 35.6 96.9 58.0 49.3 28.1 40.5 55.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 47.2 46.0 33.8 95.7 57.2 47.7 27.6 40.0 54.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.2 46.9 38.4 102.3 60.9 50.3 23.8 36.8 52.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 43.3 63.0 42.5 86.9 51.1 45.1 45.1 61.8 81.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 31.6 31.6 31.0 92.2 57.9 48.4 15.5 25.5 38.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 25.7 46.5 35.5 97.8 58.9 49.7 25.2 38.4 54.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 54.0 48.3 33.9 86.5 52.8 46.0 32.5 46.0 61.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 35.5 52.8 44.5 87.8 50.3 45.0 36.1 52.4 72.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 54.0 49.6 33.3 87.2 53.3 47.0 33.4 46.8 62.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 39.6 60.6 48.0 89.5 50.0 44.8 42.4 60.6 81.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 27.1 42.8 32.1 83.6 51.9 45.4 26.8 41.1 58.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 60.6 56.8 36.6 90.5 54.8 47.9 36.9 52.1 69.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 52.2 46.6 33.8 85.6 51.9 46.2 31.6 44.9 60.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 40.0 59.3 40.1 88.5 52.2 46.1 40.1 56.6 76.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 53.4 46.6 36.6 86.6 52.7 46.4 27.8 43.6 63.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 20.8 39.3 31.7 94.7 57.1 47.0 21.8 33.6 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 53.3 46.3 36.4 86.3 52.3 46.7 27.0 43.4 64.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 39.3 39.4 34.8 95.9 58.8 49.0 23.5 33.4 45.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 52.3 75.1 45.7 86.6 48.5 43.7 55.7 77.0 101.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 47.0 43.7 33.4 88.0 53.7 47.4 28.9 41.0 55.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------