***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 13.4 13.4 16.8 -1.6 24.4 26.5 13.9 14.8 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 13.2 13.1 16.7 -1.4 26.8 29.1 13.5 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 15.3 15.3 17.0 -1.7 23.9 25.7 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.0 11.4 15.0 -1.1 32.2 34.1 11.5 12.5 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.9 11.9 15.6 -1.2 29.1 30.9 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.6 13.1 -0.9 34.6 35.9 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 13.4 13.4 16.8 -1.5 26.2 28.3 13.8 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.0 13.4 -0.7 36.6 38.0 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.9 13.6 16.1 -0.8 34.4 36.1 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.6 14.4 -0.7 35.7 37.2 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.0 15.8 -0.8 34.7 36.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.4 14.5 -0.9 34.3 35.8 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.6 14.6 -0.7 37.3 38.4 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 13.8 13.8 15.4 -1.2 29.2 30.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.7 14.9 17.5 -0.5 39.8 41.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.0 13.9 15.0 -0.9 33.2 34.6 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.2 16.7 -1.0 31.8 33.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.7 13.6 -0.9 33.0 34.5 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 13.6 13.5 16.8 -1.4 26.0 28.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.9 11.7 -1.0 32.9 34.5 7.9 8.6 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 12.9 12.9 16.9 -1.3 28.1 29.8 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.0 16.9 -1.2 29.0 30.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 13.0 12.9 16.9 -1.4 26.5 28.4 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.9 13.6 15.6 -1.1 31.4 32.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.7 16.0 -1.8 22.2 24.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.6 12.6 13.3 -1.2 28.9 30.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 12.9 12.8 16.4 -1.6 25.3 27.4 13.5 14.7 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.4 12.6 15.9 -0.7 38.7 39.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.1 12.8 -1.0 32.2 34.0 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 13.4 13.3 16.8 -1.7 24.1 26.2 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------