***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.5 14.3 -0.4 43.6 44.7 11.0 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.0 13.9 -0.4 43.7 44.6 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.3 14.6 -0.3 44.6 45.3 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.5 12.2 0.0 50.6 49.7 8.2 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.1 10.3 12.3 -0.1 48.7 48.4 9.3 10.3 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.6 10.7 0.2 53.4 52.1 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.4 14.1 -0.4 43.5 44.4 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.7 10.6 0.2 53.6 52.7 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.5 12.4 -0.1 47.4 47.7 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.3 11.2 0.0 50.9 50.5 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.8 12.0 0.1 52.6 51.5 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.5 11.3 0.2 53.3 52.3 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.0 10.5 0.1 51.2 50.7 9.1 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.6 12.3 -0.2 45.9 47.1 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.1 13.5 0.2 53.4 52.0 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.7 11.4 0.2 53.1 52.0 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.7 13.8 -0.3 45.4 45.9 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.9 10.6 0.0 50.8 50.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.3 14.0 -0.3 44.3 45.1 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.2 8.6 0.2 53.2 52.9 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 10.1 10.8 13.7 -0.3 44.0 44.9 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.6 13.7 -0.3 43.8 44.6 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.7 14.1 -0.2 45.9 46.5 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.2 12.3 -0.1 48.6 48.9 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.4 11.3 13.0 -0.3 44.5 45.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.3 10.4 0.1 51.4 51.0 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.6 13.6 -0.3 44.6 45.5 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.0 12.5 0.1 51.9 50.9 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.2 10.0 0.0 50.7 50.9 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.5 14.2 -0.4 43.4 44.3 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------