***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 25.9 25.3 25.4 -3.8 14.2 17.9 27.1 28.4 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 25.4 24.9 26.1 -3.6 16.7 20.0 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 25.3 24.7 25.5 -4.1 13.9 17.3 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 19.5 18.9 23.1 -3.4 17.0 21.3 20.4 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 26.3 25.3 23.6 -4.3 12.3 16.3 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 25.0 24.3 21.3 -3.8 14.2 17.9 26.3 27.8 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 25.1 24.6 26.0 -3.5 16.9 20.2 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 14.4 13.4 21.2 -4.4 12.0 15.7 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 25.8 24.8 24.6 -4.0 13.8 17.8 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 25.7 24.8 22.2 -4.4 12.4 16.2 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 25.9 25.0 23.8 -4.3 12.3 16.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 25.3 24.3 22.5 -4.3 12.4 16.1 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 26.4 25.3 23.4 -4.0 12.4 16.6 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 25.4 24.8 24.4 -3.8 15.8 19.4 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 27.0 26.6 26.5 -2.7 22.2 26.2 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 27.0 26.0 23.6 -4.0 13.2 17.3 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 25.0 24.6 26.2 -3.0 20.2 23.7 25.8 27.2 28.4 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 24.7 23.8 21.3 -4.4 12.7 16.5 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 25.2 24.7 26.2 -3.5 17.5 21.0 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 20.6 19.5 19.2 -4.4 12.0 16.2 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 25.6 24.6 25.2 -4.3 12.5 16.2 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 25.7 25.3 26.4 -2.8 21.5 25.1 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 25.7 25.2 26.3 -3.1 20.3 24.2 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 25.2 24.4 24.0 -4.0 14.3 18.2 26.3 27.7 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 25.6 24.8 24.2 -4.0 13.3 17.3 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 26.0 24.7 21.8 -4.5 9.9 13.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 25.3 24.6 24.9 -3.6 14.9 19.0 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 26.8 26.3 24.5 -3.3 18.3 22.4 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 20.2 19.3 20.6 -4.4 12.6 16.5 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 25.0 24.5 25.8 -3.8 15.1 18.2 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------