***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.7 27.4 0.2 53.1 52.0 23.9 25.4 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 26.0 25.9 27.7 0.5 55.6 54.4 23.9 25.4 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.1 25.9 27.9 0.5 55.5 53.8 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.3 19.6 25.8 0.8 61.0 57.5 17.3 18.7 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 26.8 26.7 26.4 0.4 55.8 53.8 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.7 24.0 0.4 55.4 53.3 23.9 25.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 25.7 25.6 27.5 0.4 55.0 53.9 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.2 24.6 0.6 58.2 55.7 13.2 14.6 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.3 27.0 0.6 57.8 55.3 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.1 25.3 0.6 57.6 55.2 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.5 26.6 0.5 57.0 54.7 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.9 25.8 0.6 57.8 55.3 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.8 25.8 0.4 54.9 53.3 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.9 26.2 26.6 0.9 60.7 58.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 26.8 27.4 27.9 1.0 63.8 59.6 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.6 26.2 0.6 57.8 55.4 25.5 26.9 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 25.3 25.7 27.6 0.9 60.4 58.2 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.3 24.6 0.8 59.5 56.8 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 25.8 26.0 28.0 0.7 58.2 56.3 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.6 22.6 0.8 60.6 57.5 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 26.3 26.1 27.6 0.3 54.3 52.8 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.8 26.3 27.8 1.0 62.1 59.4 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.8 26.4 28.4 1.2 63.6 60.4 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 25.7 26.0 26.6 0.9 60.5 57.7 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 26.4 26.0 26.2 0.2 53.0 52.0 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.4 25.1 0.3 54.3 52.9 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.8 26.7 0.3 54.4 53.1 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.9 27.3 26.8 0.9 62.2 58.3 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.5 20.8 23.9 0.8 60.4 57.4 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.6 27.6 0.3 53.1 52.3 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------