***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.3 26.0 0.1 51.1 50.5 22.5 24.2 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 25.0 24.5 25.9 0.0 50.5 50.3 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.6 26.4 0.3 53.9 52.9 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.6 18.1 25.1 0.8 62.1 59.1 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.4 25.3 0.6 58.7 57.0 23.0 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.1 24.8 23.4 1.0 64.5 60.7 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.1 25.8 0.0 50.1 50.0 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.7 14.3 23.9 1.0 63.5 60.6 11.7 13.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.9 25.3 0.5 57.2 56.0 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.8 24.2 0.8 60.4 58.4 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 26.1 25.5 25.3 0.9 63.1 60.4 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 25.3 24.9 25.1 1.0 63.9 60.8 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.7 24.4 0.8 62.1 59.3 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.7 24.4 0.4 55.4 54.4 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.4 26.3 26.3 1.1 66.6 62.2 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 26.9 26.4 25.1 1.0 64.0 60.9 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 24.2 24.0 25.7 0.2 53.3 52.6 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.9 23.5 0.7 59.8 58.0 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.5 26.1 0.2 52.8 52.2 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.9 20.6 21.6 1.0 63.8 60.7 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.9 24.7 25.9 0.3 54.1 53.3 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.5 25.6 0.3 54.1 53.3 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.8 26.3 0.5 56.6 55.2 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.5 24.7 0.6 57.8 56.4 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 24.9 24.7 24.7 0.2 53.6 52.7 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 25.9 25.7 24.9 1.0 65.3 61.4 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 24.7 24.5 25.2 0.2 52.6 51.8 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.3 26.1 25.7 1.0 65.3 61.3 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.5 22.6 0.8 60.5 58.4 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.2 25.9 0.0 49.7 49.6 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------