***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 24.2 24.4 25.6 -1.2 27.8 31.2 24.7 25.5 26.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.3 24.5 25.8 -1.1 31.3 34.3 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 24.3 24.5 25.9 -1.1 29.8 32.9 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 17.7 18.2 24.0 -0.7 37.6 39.9 17.9 18.8 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 24.9 25.2 24.4 -1.1 30.6 33.8 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 24.0 24.4 22.3 -0.7 35.3 37.9 24.2 25.2 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 24.0 24.2 25.7 -1.1 31.0 33.8 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 13.4 13.8 22.6 -0.9 33.4 36.4 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 24.4 24.8 24.8 -1.0 32.1 35.0 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 24.3 24.6 23.2 -1.0 32.2 35.3 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 24.7 25.1 24.4 -0.9 32.8 35.9 25.1 26.0 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 23.9 24.4 23.8 -0.9 33.9 37.0 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 25.0 25.4 23.7 -0.9 32.7 36.0 25.5 26.3 27.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 24.3 24.6 24.3 -0.9 33.8 36.5 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 26.7 26.1 25.9 -0.3 44.5 45.6 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 25.6 26.1 24.2 -0.8 34.7 37.5 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.0 25.7 -0.7 36.5 38.9 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 23.5 23.8 22.5 -1.0 32.8 35.7 23.8 24.6 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 24.1 24.4 26.0 -0.9 33.7 36.5 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 19.6 20.0 20.5 -0.8 34.9 37.8 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 24.4 24.7 25.5 -1.2 28.4 31.5 24.9 25.8 26.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.6 24.6 25.8 -0.6 38.2 40.3 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.7 24.8 26.2 -0.6 39.1 41.1 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 24.2 24.4 24.3 -0.9 33.5 36.4 24.4 25.2 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 24.4 24.6 24.3 -1.2 28.6 31.9 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 24.9 25.2 23.4 -0.9 32.4 35.8 25.2 26.1 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 24.2 24.4 24.9 -1.1 29.8 33.0 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 25.5 26.0 24.8 -0.5 40.3 42.1 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 19.0 19.3 21.7 -1.0 33.1 36.1 19.3 20.1 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 24.1 24.2 25.7 -1.2 28.6 31.8 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------