***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.3 22.9 14.1 209.9 86.5 61.2 2.8 5.9 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.3 15.8 11.0 151.0 77.6 53.9 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.6 31.2 14.2 203.9 85.3 57.8 3.4 7.7 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 17.4 35.2 17.2 243.4 88.9 66.6 3.6 7.7 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 16.4 47.5 18.6 333.1 95.3 68.8 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.5 32.3 22.1 291.2 92.5 72.0 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.7 17.0 11.5 159.8 79.4 58.1 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 26.9 64.6 22.6 272.2 91.8 66.7 5.9 12.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 22.0 61.9 18.7 316.0 94.3 68.9 3.6 8.6 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 21.6 53.2 23.6 294.1 93.1 67.1 5.3 10.6 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.4 41.6 20.0 345.5 95.2 68.8 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.7 24.5 18.0 285.9 92.6 67.0 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 14.7 47.7 22.0 400.0 96.5 73.2 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 26.9 50.7 16.8 223.4 87.7 58.0 5.7 12.1 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 8.4 21.3 14.8 283.8 92.3 64.7 1.6 3.7 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 15.8 44.3 19.3 352.4 95.2 71.3 3.3 7.0 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.3 19.8 10.3 140.1 75.4 50.5 4.0 8.1 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 21.4 46.1 23.5 260.0 90.7 65.5 4.8 9.8 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.6 19.5 11.8 158.9 78.8 52.7 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 22.5 52.4 27.6 289.2 92.9 69.1 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 18.0 38.7 16.1 257.1 90.3 65.2 3.9 8.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.4 19.7 9.2 118.6 70.4 45.0 4.3 9.3 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.6 28.8 13.4 189.3 83.8 55.1 3.2 7.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 24.8 52.5 18.6 257.7 90.4 61.6 5.3 11.0 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 18.1 45.9 17.3 294.2 93.5 68.8 3.8 8.0 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 13.6 27.6 14.4 241.7 89.1 63.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 18.8 36.3 15.8 231.8 88.6 64.6 4.5 9.0 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 12.5 27.2 17.4 271.4 91.0 67.2 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 26.9 54.1 22.7 246.8 89.7 64.2 6.7 13.3 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.9 14.7 11.9 160.8 79.4 56.2 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------