***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.9 5.5 61.8 51.7 40.2 4.4 8.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.2 14.0 8.3 90.2 61.6 43.3 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.3 6.6 76.4 56.6 42.3 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.8 5.6 76.5 55.0 39.5 4.4 9.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.4 12.3 6.1 86.4 59.3 40.5 4.5 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.7 9.5 6.7 77.7 53.9 39.1 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.5 10.5 7.9 85.0 60.1 40.5 4.7 8.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.8 17.7 6.9 79.3 55.4 37.8 8.4 15.2 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.7 12.1 6.4 85.9 60.3 41.3 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 5.4 12.2 6.3 74.6 54.0 36.9 6.1 10.9 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.6 14.2 7.6 98.3 62.5 46.4 5.0 9.5 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.6 6.8 95.2 62.1 42.5 4.7 9.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.2 11.0 5.8 78.0 55.4 37.7 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.4 13.9 8.7 81.0 57.4 42.3 6.3 11.2 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.3 4.9 68.7 52.9 38.6 2.1 4.7 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.7 6.0 82.6 56.3 39.6 3.8 7.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 5.0 12.5 9.2 96.9 63.9 43.9 5.5 8.9 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.9 12.2 8.3 83.8 57.5 40.2 5.1 9.6 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.9 13.2 7.9 83.4 59.9 43.9 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 5.6 11.5 7.4 68.0 49.2 33.7 6.5 11.7 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.6 6.2 78.3 57.3 41.6 3.9 7.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 8.1 15.9 9.4 94.6 63.2 43.8 9.0 12.6 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.1 13.6 7.7 80.6 59.4 44.4 6.2 10.5 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.2 12.5 7.7 79.8 56.5 41.5 5.5 10.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.0 5.8 58.3 47.2 36.4 3.7 7.8 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.0 6.7 88.8 59.5 44.2 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.7 6.0 59.6 49.7 38.8 4.0 7.8 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.4 7.4 4.9 74.0 54.0 37.9 3.5 6.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.9 19.3 9.8 88.4 58.6 41.9 7.1 14.2 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.0 11.7 7.7 83.2 59.2 41.5 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------