***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 12.9 12.1 114.2 68.8 48.1 2.4 5.8 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.4 9.5 11.3 109.0 67.2 47.6 2.2 4.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.6 11.3 12.1 107.4 66.7 47.8 2.4 5.6 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.5 17.9 10.4 105.3 66.7 48.5 4.8 10.0 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.5 9.8 106.6 66.8 48.0 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.4 11.2 9.4 89.8 61.8 45.0 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.6 10.7 10.6 100.5 64.4 45.3 2.4 6.0 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.6 21.3 9.7 99.3 64.3 46.6 5.9 12.6 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.4 10.5 10.1 104.1 65.4 47.1 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.8 10.7 97.7 63.4 45.9 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.4 10.1 9.2 107.3 67.4 49.6 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.8 13.4 8.5 109.7 68.0 50.0 3.7 7.3 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.9 10.6 8.5 98.9 65.2 47.2 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.0 17.1 16.3 119.0 70.1 51.0 3.3 7.6 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 7.2 8.6 99.3 65.3 45.5 1.6 3.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.5 12.2 8.3 101.6 65.5 47.7 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.9 10.3 94.6 62.6 44.2 2.4 5.9 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 13.2 13.5 104.2 65.4 48.2 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.1 13.7 11.6 112.6 68.4 47.8 2.7 6.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.4 15.5 11.5 91.0 60.5 42.0 5.5 10.8 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.8 9.4 94.7 63.0 45.6 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.9 11.6 101.0 64.5 43.7 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.5 11.0 12.3 116.3 69.7 48.6 2.1 5.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.8 13.4 14.2 111.4 68.0 51.2 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.1 10.2 97.6 63.8 45.8 2.7 6.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.7 7.9 99.1 65.8 44.6 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.2 12.0 11.4 105.4 66.0 46.3 2.6 6.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 9.3 9.0 101.0 64.9 45.5 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.5 21.5 14.5 107.8 66.3 50.0 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.7 12.8 12.0 113.7 68.6 47.6 2.6 6.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------