***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 5.2 23.5 11.3 134.3 74.7 54.6 4.9 9.9 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 19.7 10.5 125.8 72.8 54.3 4.4 9.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.9 21.5 12.0 142.3 76.1 53.8 4.4 8.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 18.5 12.4 128.9 73.7 50.6 3.9 8.1 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.4 16.8 11.1 121.3 71.8 49.6 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.0 11.5 13.1 118.0 71.3 52.8 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.9 18.2 10.4 120.3 71.6 53.2 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.4 21.7 11.3 106.2 67.7 49.5 7.0 12.8 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.4 17.8 12.0 126.2 72.7 51.1 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.6 17.1 12.5 115.0 69.9 50.1 5.1 9.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.7 10.0 106.7 68.2 48.9 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.1 9.7 100.7 66.5 47.2 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.5 11.9 10.5 99.2 66.5 45.7 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.3 29.7 15.8 143.9 76.5 55.2 5.4 11.6 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.7 14.2 12.3 136.2 75.1 47.6 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.7 10.4 105.7 68.0 47.7 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.8 18.0 10.3 112.9 70.2 52.0 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.7 22.9 14.5 126.8 72.5 52.8 6.1 11.4 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.1 20.1 11.4 135.5 74.8 54.3 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 22.8 13.5 114.1 69.3 53.8 6.7 12.6 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.4 23.4 10.9 127.4 73.2 51.3 4.5 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.4 19.2 11.8 121.2 72.2 52.8 3.5 8.2 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.8 20.6 12.4 142.2 76.1 54.1 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.8 28.4 14.4 140.2 75.6 52.9 4.9 10.8 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.1 22.5 12.0 131.0 74.2 53.0 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.4 11.9 9.1 94.1 65.8 46.3 3.2 6.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.2 23.7 11.8 130.8 74.0 54.7 4.1 9.5 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.9 12.4 12.0 119.8 71.9 47.8 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.7 33.5 14.8 127.3 72.6 54.3 8.8 16.5 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.9 18.7 10.9 127.9 73.1 54.4 4.6 8.8 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------