***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 48.7 67.0 43.0 124.3 70.7 58.4 26.2 41.2 60.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 47.7 58.8 41.1 116.8 67.8 56.7 27.8 40.8 56.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 51.7 72.7 44.8 127.1 71.8 59.6 27.4 43.4 63.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 56.2 82.2 45.7 133.4 73.9 61.6 29.7 46.9 68.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 64.4 78.0 45.6 147.2 78.3 64.0 27.8 41.9 59.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 59.9 65.6 51.3 135.7 74.7 63.0 22.0 35.6 52.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.1 55.4 40.4 113.3 66.4 55.9 26.7 39.6 54.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 86.3 117.4 50.5 134.8 74.9 60.5 52.5 74.1 99.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 66.9 79.0 47.1 145.1 77.7 64.5 34.3 47.5 63.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 58.4 81.8 53.1 138.4 75.9 61.6 36.1 50.8 67.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 59.4 72.4 46.9 148.1 78.8 64.0 28.3 40.9 55.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 59.6 67.9 43.0 139.2 75.9 62.2 27.3 40.0 55.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 59.0 70.6 46.9 145.4 77.5 63.8 23.5 36.9 53.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 72.6 99.3 57.5 134.3 74.8 61.1 46.6 64.3 84.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 29.6 46.3 40.6 134.1 73.8 61.3 14.4 24.4 37.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 59.1 70.6 44.1 142.9 77.0 63.4 23.9 37.4 54.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 51.9 58.8 40.0 108.7 64.4 54.5 30.0 44.1 60.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 59.8 88.0 59.8 138.1 76.3 62.8 36.3 52.4 71.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 52.2 65.2 42.7 120.1 69.1 57.7 32.0 45.7 61.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 72.3 98.9 60.1 133.2 75.1 62.1 44.9 62.5 83.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 53.3 73.4 42.5 130.3 72.8 60.4 29.9 45.1 63.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 58.8 65.3 41.9 107.8 63.9 53.7 34.9 50.1 67.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 52.0 68.9 45.8 127.5 72.0 60.0 32.4 46.0 61.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 66.3 94.7 54.9 137.5 75.8 61.7 41.4 58.6 78.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 53.5 74.7 45.3 128.0 72.2 58.7 28.6 44.8 64.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 40.6 53.6 38.1 122.4 70.1 58.7 20.2 32.6 48.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 52.7 71.9 45.0 122.4 70.0 57.7 26.9 43.9 65.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 38.2 52.6 43.3 134.8 74.2 61.8 23.0 33.1 44.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 90.4 128.0 61.7 136.9 76.3 63.2 57.2 79.9 105.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 47.9 58.8 42.5 119.0 68.7 57.2 28.6 40.9 55.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------