***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.6 17.0 -0.9 32.6 34.6 13.7 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 12.8 13.0 16.5 -1.1 29.0 31.1 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 15.1 15.2 16.9 -1.1 28.5 30.7 15.5 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 10.0 9.8 13.9 -1.7 18.4 20.1 10.9 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 11.4 11.5 14.5 -1.3 23.3 25.2 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 10.6 10.5 12.2 -1.4 18.4 21.0 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 13.1 13.3 16.6 -1.1 28.8 30.7 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.4 6.6 12.9 -0.7 32.8 34.6 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.2 13.2 15.3 -0.9 30.2 32.2 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.1 13.7 -0.8 31.6 33.5 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 12.2 12.2 14.1 -1.2 22.9 25.2 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 10.8 11.0 13.5 -0.9 27.9 29.9 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 11.8 11.5 13.1 -1.3 18.3 22.1 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 13.6 13.5 15.2 -1.0 28.0 30.0 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 13.6 13.4 15.6 -1.7 15.9 17.9 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 13.0 12.8 13.7 -1.4 18.1 21.1 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 13.4 13.7 16.0 -1.0 29.3 31.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 11.3 11.3 12.8 -0.9 27.5 29.6 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.4 16.6 -1.1 28.9 31.0 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.7 7.9 11.0 -0.7 32.5 34.1 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 12.8 12.9 16.6 -1.0 29.2 31.3 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 12.6 12.6 16.2 -1.3 24.6 26.8 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 12.7 12.9 16.7 -1.0 30.1 32.2 13.1 13.8 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 13.1 13.1 14.9 -1.1 26.3 28.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.1 16.0 -1.0 29.3 31.5 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 11.9 11.6 12.5 -1.5 16.9 20.2 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.1 16.3 -1.0 30.4 32.5 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 11.2 10.9 14.4 -1.8 15.2 17.2 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.6 10.8 12.3 -0.7 33.4 35.1 10.8 11.7 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 13.3 13.4 16.8 -1.1 28.5 30.6 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------