***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9.9 10.8 15.0 -0.5 40.9 42.7 10.3 11.3 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 9.8 10.7 14.8 -0.6 39.8 41.7 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 12.2 13.1 14.9 -0.5 41.2 42.7 12.6 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 7.8 8.7 12.8 -0.5 39.2 41.7 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 8.6 9.6 12.5 -0.4 41.3 43.1 9.0 10.1 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 8.1 9.2 11.0 -0.2 45.4 46.1 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 10.2 11.1 14.8 -0.6 39.7 41.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.2 11.0 -0.1 48.4 47.9 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.2 12.9 -0.3 43.8 44.8 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.0 11.5 -0.2 45.0 45.8 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.5 10.4 12.1 -0.4 42.6 44.0 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 8.0 9.1 12.0 -0.1 47.1 46.8 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 8.8 9.7 11.3 -0.4 42.1 43.1 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.6 11.4 12.8 -0.5 40.5 42.1 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.6 13.6 -0.4 40.9 43.3 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 10.3 11.1 11.9 -0.4 41.2 42.9 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 10.8 11.4 14.1 -0.7 37.1 39.9 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.6 9.6 10.9 -0.3 43.6 44.6 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 10.2 11.0 14.8 -0.5 40.5 42.2 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.6 5.8 9.1 -0.3 43.0 44.1 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.6 14.1 -0.4 42.6 43.9 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 9.8 10.4 14.2 -0.7 36.7 39.4 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 9.5 10.5 14.6 -0.4 42.1 43.2 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 10.1 11.0 12.8 -0.4 42.6 43.7 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 9.6 10.5 13.5 -0.6 39.1 41.6 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.0 11.5 -0.4 42.5 43.6 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 9.5 10.8 14.1 -0.5 40.2 42.3 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.5 9.3 13.2 -0.4 41.0 43.1 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.6 8.7 10.2 -0.3 43.2 44.3 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 10.3 11.3 15.0 -0.6 40.3 42.1 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------