***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 11.8 12.3 15.7 -0.3 42.5 44.2 12.0 12.5 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 11.4 11.9 15.5 -0.4 39.2 41.5 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 13.8 14.2 15.6 -0.4 39.3 41.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 9.2 9.2 13.1 -0.7 28.2 32.4 9.4 10.0 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 10.6 10.8 13.1 -0.5 34.9 38.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 9.7 9.9 11.3 -0.4 33.6 37.9 9.9 10.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 11.9 12.3 15.5 -0.4 39.2 41.4 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 5.9 11.7 0.0 49.0 49.2 5.5 6.0 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 11.8 12.2 13.6 -0.2 42.0 43.8 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 11.6 12.0 12.1 -0.2 43.9 45.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.4 12.7 -0.4 36.2 39.5 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 9.7 10.1 12.5 -0.2 44.0 45.3 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 10.5 10.7 11.8 -0.5 32.3 36.4 10.7 11.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 12.2 12.5 13.6 -0.3 39.2 41.4 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 12.6 12.5 14.1 -0.7 25.9 30.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.0 12.1 12.4 -0.5 31.3 35.5 12.2 12.6 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 12.3 12.5 14.8 -0.4 36.7 39.6 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 10.1 10.6 11.5 -0.2 41.9 43.8 10.3 10.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 11.8 12.2 15.5 -0.3 39.6 41.9 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.3 6.8 9.9 -0.2 43.9 45.5 6.5 7.0 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 11.4 11.8 14.9 -0.3 41.3 43.2 11.6 12.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 11.3 11.5 14.9 -0.5 33.3 36.6 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 11.3 11.7 15.3 -0.3 41.7 43.6 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 11.7 12.1 13.5 -0.3 40.1 42.2 11.9 12.3 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 11.7 12.0 14.3 -0.4 38.0 40.7 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 10.8 10.9 11.9 -0.5 31.4 35.7 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 11.7 12.2 14.9 -0.3 40.6 42.8 12.0 12.6 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 10.3 10.3 13.4 -0.8 26.6 31.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.2 9.7 11.0 -0.1 44.9 46.1 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 12.0 12.4 15.7 -0.4 39.1 41.4 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------