***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 25.6 25.7 26.7 -1.7 28.6 31.5 26.1 27.4 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 25.0 25.0 26.6 -2.1 25.7 28.9 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 25.1 25.4 26.8 -1.9 27.9 30.8 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 18.9 18.6 23.9 -2.5 20.7 24.1 19.6 20.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 26.2 26.5 25.5 -1.6 30.2 33.3 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 25.1 24.8 22.5 -2.2 20.7 24.9 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 24.8 24.9 26.6 -2.0 26.9 30.0 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 14.7 15.2 23.8 -1.4 32.6 35.6 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 25.6 26.1 26.5 -1.3 33.4 36.0 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 25.6 26.0 24.6 -1.4 32.8 35.7 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 25.8 26.1 25.2 -1.6 29.6 32.8 26.4 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 25.3 25.7 24.8 -1.5 31.2 34.4 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 26.2 26.6 24.9 -1.6 29.2 32.5 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 24.8 25.1 25.4 -1.8 29.2 32.0 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 26.0 25.7 25.8 -2.6 19.0 22.2 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 26.8 27.0 25.1 -1.7 28.1 31.4 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 24.4 24.2 25.9 -2.3 24.1 27.5 25.0 26.3 27.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 24.4 24.8 23.4 -1.7 29.6 32.7 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 24.8 24.9 26.8 -2.0 27.0 30.1 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 20.7 21.1 21.6 -1.6 30.3 33.7 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 25.5 25.9 26.9 -1.6 31.0 33.8 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 24.8 24.6 26.0 -2.2 24.2 27.5 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 25.1 25.4 26.9 -1.6 30.9 33.6 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 24.7 25.1 25.3 -1.7 29.3 32.1 25.4 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 25.4 25.6 25.5 -1.8 27.4 30.5 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 26.0 26.2 24.3 -1.7 28.1 31.9 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 25.2 25.3 26.0 -1.7 28.4 31.4 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 26.1 25.7 24.8 -2.6 19.1 22.7 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 20.1 20.4 22.7 -1.6 30.1 33.2 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 24.9 25.0 26.7 -2.1 26.2 29.2 25.6 27.0 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------