***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 22.4 23.7 24.4 -0.9 39.5 42.8 23.1 24.7 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 22.7 23.6 24.4 -1.1 37.0 40.7 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 22.5 23.6 24.4 -1.0 38.1 41.8 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 15.3 16.4 22.8 -0.9 38.3 41.9 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 22.8 24.2 22.9 -0.8 40.8 43.6 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 21.6 23.1 21.3 -0.6 42.0 44.1 22.3 23.9 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 22.3 23.3 24.3 -1.0 38.2 41.5 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 11.2 13.2 21.9 -0.2 47.6 47.8 11.9 13.4 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 22.5 24.0 23.3 -0.7 42.0 44.5 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 22.1 23.8 22.1 -0.5 43.6 45.4 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 22.6 24.2 22.8 -0.5 43.4 45.2 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 21.6 23.7 23.0 -0.2 47.2 47.5 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 22.6 24.3 22.3 -0.6 43.1 44.9 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 22.7 23.7 22.5 -1.0 37.6 41.4 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 23.3 24.3 23.3 -0.9 37.9 41.3 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 23.3 24.9 22.7 -0.6 42.2 44.3 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 21.9 22.5 23.6 -1.4 32.9 37.4 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 21.3 22.8 21.2 -0.7 41.7 44.3 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 22.6 23.5 24.4 -1.1 37.3 41.0 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 17.3 19.2 19.5 -0.4 45.3 46.4 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 22.6 24.0 23.9 -0.8 40.3 43.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 22.6 23.1 23.6 -1.4 32.8 37.4 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 22.7 23.7 24.3 -0.9 39.0 42.2 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 22.2 23.4 22.6 -0.9 39.1 42.5 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 22.5 23.7 22.8 -0.9 38.7 42.2 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 22.6 24.1 22.5 -0.5 43.3 45.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 22.4 23.6 23.5 -0.9 39.2 42.5 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 23.4 24.4 23.2 -0.9 38.9 42.2 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 16.7 18.3 20.3 -0.6 42.5 44.7 17.5 18.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 22.5 23.5 24.5 -1.0 38.0 41.5 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------